Publications

2018

Chmielewski, V.C., E.C. Bruning, and B.C. Ancell, 2018: Variations of thunderstorm charge structures in West Texas on June 4 2012. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, submitted, in review.

Ancell, B.C., A. Bogusz, M.J. Lauridsen, and J.C. Nauert, 2018: Chaos seeding: The dire consequences of numerical noise in NWP perturbation experiments. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, accecpted, in press.

Lauridsen, M.J, and B.C. Ancell, 2018: Nonlocal Inadvertent Weather Modification Associated with Wind Farms in the Central United States. Atmospheric Research, submitted, in review.

2017

Smith, N., and B.C. Ancell, 2017: Ensemble sensitivity analysis of wind ramp events with applications to observation targeting. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 145, No. 7, pages 2505-2522.

Wang, S., G.H. Huang, B.W. Baetz, X.M. Cai, B.C. Ancell, and Y.R. Fan, 2017: Examining dynamic interactions among experimental factors influencing hydrologic data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 554, pages 743-757.

Wang, S., G.H. Huang, B.W, Baetz, and B.C, Ancell, 2017: Towards robust quantification and reduction of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions: Integration of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo and factorial polynomial chaos expansion. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 548, pages 484-497.

2016

Ancell, B.C., 2016: Improving high-impact forecasts through sensitivity-based ensemble subsets: Demonstration and initial tests. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 31, No. 3, pages 1019-1036.

Hill, A.J., C.C. Weiss, and B.C. Ancell, 2016: Ensemble sensitivity analysis for mesoscale forecasts of dryline convection initiation. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 144, No. 11, pages 4161-4182.

2015

Ancell, B. C., E. Kashawlic, and J.L. Schroeder, 2015: Evaluation of wind forecasts and observation impacts from variational and ensemble data assimilation for wind energy applications. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 143, No. 8, pages 3230-3245.

Bednarczyk, C. N., and B. C. Ancell, 2015: Ensemble sensitivity analysis applied to a Southern Plains convective event. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 143, No. 1, pages 230-249.

Hollan, M.A., and B.C. Ancell, 2015: Ensemble mean storm-scale performance in the presence of nonlinearity. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 143, No. 12, pages 5115-5133.

2014

Ancell, B. C., C. F. Mass, K. Cook, and B. Colman, 2014: Comparison of surface wind and temperature analyses from an ensemble Kalman filter and the NWS Real Time Mesoscale Analysis system. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 29, No. 4, pages 1058-1075.

McMurdie, L. A., and B. C. Ancell, 2014: Predictability characteristics of landfalling cyclones along the North American west coast. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 142, No. 1, pages 301-319.

2013

Ancell, B. C., 2013: Nonlinear characteristics of ensemble perturbation evolution and their application to forecasting high-impact events. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 6, pages 1353-1365.

Ancell, B. C., and L. A. McMurdie, 2013: Ensemble adaptive data assimilation techniques applied to land-falling North American cyclones. Book chapter in Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications Volume 2. Springer, Liang Xu and Seon Park Editors.

2012

Ancell, B. C., 2012: Examination of analysis and forecast errors of high-resolution assimilation, bias removal, and digital filter initialization with an ensemble Kalman filter. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 140, No. 12, pages 3992-4004.

2011

Ancell, B. C., C. F. Mass, and G. J. Hakim, 2011: Evaluation of surface analyses and forecasts with a multiscale ensemble Kalman filter in regions of complex terrain. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 139, No. 6, pages 2008-2024.

Prior to 2011

Ancell, B. C. and C. F. Mass, 2008: The variability of adjoint sensitivity with respect to model physics and basic-state trajectory. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, No. 12, pages 4612-2628.

Ancell, B. C. and G. J. Hakim, 2007: Comparing ensemble and adjoint sensitivity analysis with applications to observation targeting. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 135, No. 12, pages 4117-4134.

Ancell, B. C. and G. J. Hakim, 2007: Interpreting adjoint and ensemble sensitivity toward the development of optimal observation targeting strategies. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 16, No. 6, pages 635-642.

Ancell, B. C. and C. F. Mass, 2006: Structure, growth rates, and tangent linear accuracy of adjoint sensitivities with respect to horizontal and vertical resolution. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, No. 10, pages 2971 - 2988.