BRIAN C. ANCELL

Texas Tech University
Department of Geosciences
Atmospheric Sciences Group, Box 42101 Lubbock, TX 79409
(806)834-3143 (phone)
(806)742-1738 (fax)
brian.ancell@ttu.edu


Education

B.S. Civil Engineering       May 1998
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Ph.D. Atmospheric Sciences       August 2006
University of Washington

Professional Experience

Assistant Professor       January 2010 - Present
Atmospheric Science Group, Department of Geosciences Texas Tech University

Visiting Scientist       June 2008 - August 2009, May 2011 - September 2011
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO

Postdoctoral Research Associate       October 2006 - November 2009
University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Forecaster       January 2001 - June 2004
University of Washington Student Newspaper The Daily

Research Assistant       September 2000 - August 2006
University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Summer Research Intern, Oceanography       June 1998 - August 1998
University of California at Santa Barbara

Broadcast Meteorology Intern       June 1999 - September 1999
KNXV ABC Television Network, Phoenix, AZ

Civil Engineer       November 1998 - July 2000
Entellus, Inc., Phoenix, AZ

Teaching Experience

Professor       January 2010 - Present
Texas Tech University Department of Geosciences
ATMO 1300 - Introduction to Atmospheric Science (Undergraduate)
ATMO 3301 - General Meteorology (Undergraduate)
GPH 5324 - Radiative Transfer (Graduate)
ATMO 5332 - Regional-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (Graduate)

Instructor       June 2013, June 2014
Weather Camp
Museum of Texas Tech University

Instructor       January 2008 - March 2008
University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences
ATMS 370 - Atmospheric Structure and Analysis (Undergraduate)
ATMS 442 - Atmospheric Motions II (Undergraduate)

Instructor       July 2007
Extreme Earth Middle School Academy
Burke Museum, University of Washington

Teaching Assistant       September 2001 - December 2001, September 2002 - December 2002
University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences
ATMS 301 - Introduction to Atmospheric Sciences (Undergraduate)

Refereed Publications

Ancell, B. C., 2014: Improving high-impact forecasts through sensitivity-based ensemble subsets: Demonstration and initial tests. Submitted to Weather and Forecasting, in review.

Bednarczyk, C. N., and B. C. Ancell, 2014: Ensemble sensitivity analysis applied to a Southern Plains convective event. Submitted to Monthly Weather Review, in review.

Ancell, B. C., C. F. Mass, K. Cook, and B. Colman, 2014: Comparison of surface wind and temperature analyses from an ensemble Kalman filter and the NWS Real Time Mesoscale Analysis system. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 29, No. 4, pages 1058-1075.

McMurdie, L. A., and B. C. Ancell, 2014: Predictability characteristics of landfalling cyclones along the North American west coast. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 142, No. 1, pages 301-319.

Ancell, B. C., 2013: Nonlinear characteristics of ensemble perturbation evolution and their application to forecasting high-impact events. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 6, pages 1353-1365.

Ancell, B. C., and L. A. McMurdie, 2013: Ensemble adaptive data assimilation techniques applied to land-falling North American cyclones. Book chapter in Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications Volume 2. Springer, Liang Xu and Seon Park Editors.

Ancell, B. C., 2012: Examination of analysis and forecast errors of high-resolution assimilation, bias removal, and digital filter initialization with an ensemble Kalman filter. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 140, No. 12, pages 3992-4004.

Ancell, B. C., C. F. Mass, and G. J. Hakim, 2011: Evaluation of surface analyses and forecasts with a multiscale ensemble Kalman filter in regions of complex terrain. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 139, No. 6, pages 2008-2024.

Ancell, B. C. and C. F. Mass, 2008: The variability of adjoint sensitivity with respect to model physics and basic-state trajectory. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, No. 12, pages 4612-2628.

Ancell, B. C. and G. J. Hakim, 2007: Interpreting adjoint and ensemble sensitivity toward the development of optimal observation targeting strategies. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 16, No. 6, pages 635-642.

Ancell, B. C. and G. J. Hakim, 2007: Comparing ensemble and adjoint sensitivity analysis with applications to observation targeting.
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 135, No. 12, pages 4117 - 4134.

Ancell, B. C. and C. F. Mass, 2006: Structure, growth rates, and tangent linear accuracy of adjoint sensitivities with respect to horizontal and vertical resolution.
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, No. 10, pages 2971 - 2988.

Funding Record

Title: Integration of Forecast Sensitivity into the NWS Forecasting Process to Improve Predictability of High-impact Weather
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Role: PI
Dates: 5/1/14 - 4/30/17
Amount: $369,333
Investigator Months: 1 summer month 2015 and 2016

Title: CAREER: Quantifying Inadvertent Weather Modification and Education through Museum Programs
Agency: National Science Foundation
Role: PI
Dates: 5/01/12 - 9/30/17
Amount: $721,883
Investigator Months: 1 summer month 2012, 2 summer months 2013-2016

Title: Comparison of Surface Analysis Techniques toward Operational Use at the National Weather Service
Agency: UCAR COMET Program
Role: PI
Dates: 6/01/12 - 9/30/13
Amount: $9,849
Investigator Months: None

Title: Texas Tech Wind Science and Engineering Research Center and Shell WindEnergy (Texas) high-resolution ensemble wind energy forecasting test at Brazos site
Agency: Shell Wind Energy
Role: PI
Dates: 10/01/11 - 9/30/15
Amount: $200,000
Investigator Months: 1 summer month 2014

Title: Integration of Forecast Sensitivity into the NWS Forecasting Process to Improve Predictability of High-impact Weather
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Role: PI
Dates: 5/1/11 - 4/30/14
Amount: $340,069
Investigator Months: 1 summer month 2012 and 2013

Title: Weather Forecast Improvement Project
Agency: Department of Energy
Role: Co-PI
Dates: 10/1/10 - 7/31/13
Amount: $481,637
Investigator Months: 1 summer month 2011 and 2012

Title: Development of Operational Weather Research and Forecasting Model Ensemble Sensitivity/Data Assimilation Tools
Agency: NCAR WRF model Developmental Testbed Center
Role: PI
Dates: 5/23/11 - 8/31/11
Amount: $9,400
Investigator Months: None

Title: Development of a High-resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter for Operational Analysis and Short-term Forecasting at the National Weather Service
Agency: Subcontractor: University of Washington, Original Agency: UCAR COMET Program
Role: PI
Dates: 10/01/09 - 9/30/11
Amount: $27,856
Investigator Months: 1 summer month 2010 and 2011

Title: Predictability and Weather Regimes along the West Coast
Agency: Subcontractor: University of Washington, Original Agency: Office of Naval Research
Role: PI
Dates: 8/03/09 - 7/31/11
Amount: $27,856
Investigator Months: 1 summer month 2010 and 2011

Invited Seminars

*** - Indicates presentation was given by graduate student

"The TTU WRF Deterministic/Ensemble Prediction System"
National Weather Service Amarillo Forecast Office, Amarillo, TX, May 28, 2014.

"Ensemble Predictability of High-Impact Events"
3TIER Compnay Seminar, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA, August 1, 2013.

"Some Interesting Issues Regarding Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecasting"
Texas Tech Wind Science and Engineering Weekly Seminar Series, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, October 3, 2012.

*** "Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity: Applications to Improvement of High Impact Weather Predictability" (C. Bednarczyk)
Dallas/Ft. Worth National Weather Service Severe Weather Spring Seminar, Dallas/Ft. Worth National Weather Service Forecast Office, March 7, 2012.

"The TTU Ensemble Prediction System: Research and Operations"
Dallas/Ft. Worth National Weather Service Severe Weather Spring Seminar, Dallas/Ft. Worth National Weather Service Office, March 7, 2012.

"Atmospheric Ensemble Data Assimilation: Theory, Practice, and the Importance of Resolution"
Texas Tech University Mathematics and Statistics Department Weekly Colloquium Series, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, April 28, 2011.

"Multi-Scale Ensemble Data Assimilation: Applications Using Improved Resolution"
Texas Tech Wind Science and Engineering Weekly Seminar Series, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, March 9, 2011.

"Conversations with Professionals"
American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting Student Conference, Seattle, WA, January 22-23, 2011.

"Multi-Scale Ensemble Data Assimilation: How Important is Improved Resolution?"
Weekly Atmospheric Sciences Seminar Series, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, November 23, 2010.

"Early Career Panel: Communicating Science of Climate Change"
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Annual Members Meeting, Boulder, CO, October 5-6, 2010.

"Ensemble Sensitivities, Their Relationship to Adjoint Sensitivities, and Their Use in Data Assimilation"
Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, April 17, 2006.

"Toward a Real-time Mesoscale 4DVAR system"
Weekly Atmospheric Sciences Seminar Series, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, March 24, 2004.

Conference Presentations

*** - Indicates presentation was given by graduate student

*** "The Impact of Observation Localization on South Plains Convective Forecasts" (B. Burghardt)
6th EnKF Workshop, Buffalo, NY, May 18-22, 2014.

"Sensitivity of Severe Convective Storms to Soil Moisture and Lower Atmospheric Temperature and Water Vapor"
European Geosciences Union Annual Meeting, Vienna, Austria, April 27-May 2, 2014.

"Evaluation of Wind Forecasts and Observation Impacts using Variational and Ensemble Data Assimilation over the WFIP Southern Study Region"
18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, February 2-6, 2014.

"Improving the Ensemble Predictability of High-impact Events using Forecast Sensitivity"
26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, February 2-6, 2014.

*** "Quantifying the Effect of Irrigation on Non-local Aspects of the Atmosphere" (J. Nauert)
26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, February 2-6, 2014.

*** "Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of Wind Ramps" (N. Smith)
5th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, February 2-6, 2014.

*** "Application of Mesoscale Ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting" (A. Hill)
26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, February 2-6, 2014.

*** "Performance and Verification Results of a Cycled WRF/DART Multiscale Ensemble System at Texas Tech University" (A. Reinhart)
26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, February 2-6, 2014.

"Evaluation of Wind Forecasts and Observation Impacts using Variational and Ensemble Data Assimilation over the WFIP Southern Study Region"
American Geophysical Union (AGU) Annual Meeting (Nonlinear Geophysics Session), San Francisco, CA, December 9-13, 2013.

*** "Initial Performance and Verification Results of a Cycled WRF/DART Multiscale Ensemble System at Texas Tech University" (A. Reinhart)
6th World Meteorological Organization Symposium on Data Assimilation, College Park, MD, October 7-11, 2013.

"The Role of Nonlinear Perturbation Evolution in Best-Guess Forecasts of Land-Falling Midlatitude Cyclones"
16th Cyclone Workshop, Sainte-Adele, Quebec, Canada, September 22-27, 2013.

"Evaluation of Wind Ramp Forecasts using Variational and Ensemble Data Assimilation over the WFIP Southern Study Region"
American Meteorological Society 15th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland, OR, August 6-9, 2013.

*** "Utilizing Ensemble Sensitivity for Data Denial Experiments on the 4 April 2012 Dallas, Texas Dryline-Initiated Convective Outbreak Using West Texas Mesonet Observations and WRF-DART Data Assimilation" (A. Hill)
American Meteorological Society 15th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland, OR, August 6-9, 2013.

"The Challenges of Wind Prediction from a Forecast Sensitivity Perspective"
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, July 8-12, 2013.

*** "Evaluating Predictability of Severe Convection using a WRF Ensemble Kalman Filter" (M. Hollan)
Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications, AMS Annual Meeting, Austin, TX, January 6-10, 2013.

*** "Use of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis in the Forecasting of Convective Events" (C. Bednarczyk)
Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications, AMS Annual Meeting, Austin, TX, January 6-10, 2013.

"Objective and Forecaster Evaluation of Current NWS Mesoscale Surface Analysis Techniques"
17th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface, AMS annual meeting, Austin, TX, January 6-10, 2013.

"Improving the Ensemble Predictability of High-Impact Events Using Forecast Sensitivity"
American Geophysical Union (AGU) Annual Meeting (Nonlinear Geophysics Session), San Francisco, CA, December 3-7, 2012.

"Nonlinear Characteristics of Ensemble Perturbation Evolution for Land-Falling North American Mid-latitude Cyclones"
The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 2012 Congress/American Meteorological Society 21st Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and 25th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Montreal, Canada, May 29 - June 1, 2012.

*** "Forecast Sensitivity of an April 2012 Southern Plains Convective Event" (C. Bednarczyk)
The 5th EnKF Workshop, Rensselaerville, New York, May 21-24, 2012.

"Nonlinear Characteristics of Ensemble Perturbation Evolution for Land-Falling North American Mid-latitude Cyclones"
The 5th EnKF Workshop, Rensselaerville, New York, May 21-24, 2012.

*** "Comparing Observation Impact between Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation Schemes on Short-term, Low- level Wind Forecasting" (E. Kashawlic)
Wind Farms' Underperformance and Partnerships: Building Partnerships to Meet the 2030 Grand Challenge, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, March 28, 2012.

"Predictability Characteristics of Land- falling North American Cyclones"
American Geophysical Union (AGU) Annual Meeting (Nonlinear Geophysics Session), San Francisco, CA, December 5-9, 2011.

*** "Comparing observation impact on lowlevel wind forecasts between an ensemble Kalman filter and a 3DVAR data assimilation scheme" (E. Kashawlic)
The 9th International Adjoint Workshop, Cefalu, Sicily, Itlay, October 9-14, 2011.

"The Predictability of North American Land- falling Cyclones"
The 9th International Adjoint Workshop, Cefalu, Sicily, Itlay, October 9-14, 2011.

"Comparison of RTMA and Ensemble Kalman Filter Surface Analyses"
Joint Session: 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface/24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting and 20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA, January 23-27, 2011.

"Characteristics of Short-term Predictability of Land-falling Cyclones along the North American West Coast"
24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA, January 23-27, 2011.

"The Sensitivity of Adjoint Sensitivity"
8th International Workshop on Adjoint Model Applications in Dynamic Meteorology, Tannersville, PA, May 18-22, 2009.

"Toward a Pacific Northwest High-resolution Analysis of Record Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter"
2009 Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop, Seattle, WA, March 20- 21, 2009.

"Comparison of Two Operational Ensemble Systems in the Prediction of a Pacific Northwest Windstorm"
14th Cyclone Workshop, Sainte-Adele, Quebec, Canada, September 21-26, 2008.

"The Use of Ensemble-based Sensitivity for Determining the Impact of Supplemental Observations"
AMS 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, June 25-29, 2007.

"Structure, Growth Rates, and Tangent-Linear Accuracy of Adjoint Sensitivities with Respect to Horizontal Resolution"
13th Cyclone Workshop, Monterey, CA, October 22-26, 2006.

"Comparing Ensemble and Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis"
7th International Workshop on Adjoint Applications in Dynamic Meteorology, Obergurgl, Tyrol, Austria, October 8-13, 2006.

"A 4DVAR Analysis of the February 7-8, 2002 Oregon Cyclone"
20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA, January 11-15, 2004.

"The Role of Initial Condition Error in the February 7th, 2003 Oregon Cyclone Forecast Bust: A 4DVAR Viewpoint"
12th Cyclone Workshop, Val Morin, Quebec, Canada, September 21-26, 2003.

Other Relevant Experience and Activity

Associate Editor, Weather and Forecasting      January 2011-present
American Meteorological Society

Associate Editor, Monthly Weather Review       January 2010-present
American Meteorological Society

Associate Editor, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology       January 2014-present
American Meteorological Society

Faculty Advisor, Texas Tech University Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society       September 2010-present

Reviewer for Weather and Forecasting, Monthly Weather Review, Tellus, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, and the National Science Foundation

Member, American Meteorological Society

Member, American Geophysical Union

Member, European Geosciences Union

Co-convener, American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting       2010-2014
Nonlinear Geophysics Focus Group

American Geophysical Union Texas State Research Highlights Pamphlet       May 2011

Advising Activity

PhD Students (In Process)
Brock Burghardt

Master's Students (Completed)
Michael Hollan
Chris Bednarczyk
Padriac Fowler
Erin Kashawlic

Master's Students (In Process)
Christian Nauert
Matt Lauridsen
Nick Smith
Aaron Hill (Co-advised with Christopher Weiss)

Committee Member
Anthony Reinhart (PhD)
Tim Sliwinski (Master's, PhD)
Patrick Skinner (PhD)
Kate Horgan (Master's)
Jennifer Daniel (Master's)

Undergraduates Advised
Cutter Martin
Michael Cook
Elaine Jones
Kacie Hoover
Megan Jares
Tiffany Fisher
Ashley Gilbreath
Clyde Barbian
Cody Comiskey