TTUHRT- Hurricanes at Landfall Project

CYCLONE: --TS Fay--

STATUS: STANDBY

Discussion Date: 8/18/08 10:30 pm CDT

Team Location: Jacksonville, FL

STICK-NET T1 (12/12): READY

STICK-NET T2 (12/12): READY

TTU-KA 1: DOWN

WEMITE #1: Not Participating

WEMITE #2: Not Participating

DISCUSSION : TTUHRT will not deploy in south Florida for the landfall of TS Fay. FCMP and LSU tower teams will make their respective deployments and provide coverage of landfall in South Florida. TS Fay continued to fluctuate in organization today, taking on a very sheared and assymetric appearance at times. The cyclone has attempted to establish an inner core structure several times during the day; however was unable to establish a vertically stacked center of circulation. Current radar imagery suggests that Fay will make landfall near Marco Island FL in the next few hours. Nearly all of the dynamical guidance indicates that Fay will cross the Florida peninsula and re-emerge into the Atlantic sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday. This is where the guidance diverges with the GFS and ECMWF suggesting that Fay will head eastward in response to an upper trough exiting the east coast of the US; however the trough is not strong enough to recurve the cyclone. Fay then stalls in a weak steering environment followed by a westward turn back toward the Florida or Georgia coastline as upper ridging builds back westward. The GFDL and HWRF suggest a similar senario except that Fay, instead of turning north, drifts slowly toward South Carolina. Fay after 48 hrs should find itself in a low-shear environment under weak steering flow, and over the gulf stream. If the circulation of Fay survives the trek accross Florida, some additional re-intensification is likely. TTUHRT has moved northward to Jacksonville FL to keep deployment options open for either a second landfall in Florida or the Carolinas. If Fay does not survive the interaction with land, the team will return to Lubbock.

Author: Giammanco

Posted discussions should not be used to make life or death decisions. They represent analysis and opinions of TTUHRT members and are not to be considered official forecasts. The above discussion is meant to provide a brief discussion regarding current tropical activity and a description of previous and future TTUHRT-Hurricanes at Landfall Project field operations. Any use of this material beyond its original intent is strictly prohibited.

For official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center, for local statements please see your local forecast office of the National Weather Service.